Well, I haven't posted in a month, and that has more to do with laziness than school starting back, though that's certainly also a factor. It's hard to get too motivated about the rest of the playoffs now that the Steelers are out, but at least I have teams to root against. That's some small consolation, even though it prolongs the agony when those teams win. Somewhat ironically, every team remaining in the AFC played against the Steelers this season, and of those, the only Pittsburgh victory came against New England; this, however, does not change the fact that I hate the Patriots more than any other entity on Earth and will devote the entirety of my psychic powers to ensuring their downfall.
The big NFL news this week has of course been Tim Tebow, and it is he who is entrusted with the task of defeating the Pats in New England. I have absolutely no hope of this coming to pass, but on the other hand, I never saw it coming last week either. It was the most confident I'd ever been going into a Steelers playoff game. I wasn't even nervous. When the Broncos went three-and-out on their first two possessions, I started thinking they might not even get a first down. Pittsburgh went up 6-0 fairly quickly, and then about 20 minutes later were down 20-6. I didn't feel well.
But it's a well-known truth that upsets are more likely when they involve my favorite team on the receiving end. When it's a team that I hate, it seems like they're unbeatable. Admittedly, there are exceptions. Nevertheless, the Patriots already savagely beat the Broncos a few weeks ago, and I don't see it changing today. Oh, how I hope I'm wrong. Anyway, on to today's match-ups.
New Orleans Saints (14-3) at San Francisco 49ers (13-3)
While it's a fairly common sight in the wild card round, it's quite rare to see the road team in the divisional round have a better record than their home counterpart. It's also a little jarring to see the road team be the betting favorite, as is the case here (the Saints are 4-point favorites). I'm not a gambling man by any means, but that line sounds just about right to me. I've seen a lot of the Saints and very little of the 49ers this season, but my perception is that New Orleans is clearly the better team.
I did, however, see the 49ers give beatings to two playoff teams, the Steelers and the Lions, the latter of which concluded with the infamous mid-field conflict between coaches Jim Schwarz and Jim Harbaugh. It wasn't that big of a deal, but Tebowmania hadn't swept the nation yet, so nobody had a lot to talk about back then. I digress, but my point is that the 49ers are in fact capable of beating very good teams in a convincing fashion. Alex Smith gets a lot of criticism, most of it deserved, but he's at least as good as Joe Flacco, if you ask me. Smith just doesn't complain about not getting recognition as an elite quarterback, since he clearly isn't (just like Flacco).
More digressions. There's really not much that I can add about the Saints that isn't already known. They're an offensive juggernaut, putting up points and yards in a nearly unprecedented fashion. Their scoring defense is slightly above average (13th), while their defensive yardage ranking is quite a bit below average (24th). Overall, they're really good. Nobody doubts that. It's the mystery of the 49ers that they have to contend with. Is Jim Harbaugh this good of a coach? How did they ascend to the top so quickly? Are they for real? Will Alex Smith belong to the pantheon of great 49ers QBs like Brodie, Montana, and Young?*
Ultimately, I feel like we'll discover that the 49ers are a pretty good little team, but they're not in the same class as this year's Saints. Likely the real secret to San Francisco's success is their "ability" to force turnovers, but the data show that turnover production is largely a matter of luck more than skill, and it's impossible to predict how much of a factor luck will play in this game. One of the more fascinating statistics of the year to me is that the 49ers (2nd in total defense) led the NFL with 38 forced turnovers, while the number one defense in the league (the Steelers) forced a league-worst 15 turnovers. That has little to do with the situation at hand, but there you have it.
My pick: Saints 28, 49ers 24. Vegas knows what they're doing.
Denver Broncos (9-8) at New England Patriots (13-3)
I generally try to give an "objective" analysis of these games, but I'm not even going to pretend that's possible here. A potential piece of good news for Denver is that their record on the road this year is better than their home record, as they posted a 5-3 mark away from Mile High. Also encouraging is that Tom Brady, after starting his career 8-0 in home playoff games, has lost his last two (three, if you count Super Bowl XLII, when the Pats were designated as the "home team" in a neutral location game). Otherwise history does not bode well for Denver, which has a 3-8 all-time win-loss record on the road in the playoffs.
But who am I kidding? The Broncos this season have no interest in logic, or history, or probability. This is the Year of Tebow, so we can throw all the aforementioned statistics out the window. The central conflict in this game is God vs. Satan, good vs. evil, which here takes the guise of Tebow vs. Belichick. Satan, as you well know, is a schemer, and he's already perpetrated his chicanery, hiring former Pats OC and recently fired Rams OC Josh McDaniels as a "special adviser" for the playoffs. This is surely just a mere coincidence, but McDaniels was also the Broncos head coach who drafted Tim Tebow and Demaryius Thomas. A very interesting coincidence indeed.
As much as I want the story line to continue, I also understand that nothing motivates Belichick more than destroying the fun and joy in people's lives. He stands for everything awful and bad and rotten in the universe, and all the good feelings and happiness that Tebow brings to people are powerless in his wake. I realize I've said very little here that's actually football-related, but there's very little about this game that will come down to football tactics. It belongs to higher powers now. But as much as it pains me to do so, here's another troublesome nugget I just discovered. The Broncos' vaunted defense, which has supposedly been saving Tebow's hide all season? 24th in the NFL, a full nine positions worse than the Patriots.
Uh oh.
My pick: Patriots 59, Broncos 3
*No.
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