I returned to Mississippi for Christmas vacation last week, and I've unfortunately neglected to write a blog post since then. I had planned to do a bowl preview post at some point, and then, before I knew it, bowl season had started without me even realizing it. I scrambled to get my ESPN.com predictions in before the deadline, and I just made it, consigning me to another year of finishing in the 20th percentile of participants. I always make the mistake of picking who I think is the "better team," without taking into consideration how disgusted the players are at being shipped out to the Betty Crocker Au Gratin Potato Bowl, or whatever it is. This makes a huge difference; overwhelming talent is no match for overwhelming apathy.
Although the Gildan New Mexico Bowl has started already, I still wanted to hammer out a bowl preview for the pre-Christmas games, which include four match-ups between teams I haven't seen play and three that I assume will be blow-outs (at least based on my faulty assumption that talent matters in bowl games). So here we go, and always remember that getting every game wrong is just as impressive as getting every one right.
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Temple Owls (8-4) vs. Wyoming Cowboys (8-4)
Any time I try to name all the schools in either of these teams' conferences, I forget these two. Without fail. I even had to look it up just now to make sure I had them right (Temple is MAC, Wyoming is MWC). What I'm trying to say is that I know nothing about this game. From a statistical standpoint, Temple has a clear edge, as they possess the #7 rushing offense (256.7 ypg) and #3 scoring defense (13.8 ppg) in the nation. Wyoming, on the other hand, is average (mediocre?) in just about every way possible. They scored exactly as many points as they allowed this season (324), and their points scored and points allowed rankings are almost exactly in the middle of the pack (60th and 66th, respectively). A boring team for a boring state, I guess.
My pick: Temple
Mascot Advantage: Clearly Wyoming. Owls are cool and all, but nobody's ever really felt threatened by one.
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Ohio Bobcats (9-4) vs. Utah State Aggies (7-5)
Ohio State and Utah! This should be a good game! Oh, it's Ohio and Utah State. I make fun, but the truth is that they had records better than (Ohio) or equally good as (Utah St.) their more well-known state counterparts. Ohio has impressive statistical rankings (top 40 in all major categories) and by all rights should have won the MAC championship, but Utah State, like Temple, is a top 10 rushing offense. However, their defense is awful, allowing over 28 points per game, and they can't throw the ball (95th in the nation). Plus, they lost to a 3-9 Colorado St. team this season. On one hand, Ohio is probably still upset about blowing a huge lead against Northern Illinois in the MAC championship game, but on the other hand, their reward for winning would have been a trip to the Godaddy.com Bowl. No huge loss, so their psyches should still be relatively intact.
My pick: Ohio
Mascot Advantage: Huge Ohio advantage. For one thing, nobody knows what an Aggie actually is. I'm informed that it's any attendee of an agricultural college, but it could just as easily be a reference to a marble. The Ohio Bobcat, however, has a history of physical assault. Just last season, he tried to murder Brutus Buckeye. He's not one to be trifled with.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
San Diego State Aztecs (8-4) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (8-4)
Hmm... where to start here? Again, we have two relatively obscure teams, both of which have had pretty good seasons without anybody noticing. Neither team is particularly impressive statistically, although SDSU has a 1600-yard rusher in Ronnie Hillman, making him the only real standout on either squad. Louisiana-Lafayette is known to the public mostly for their nickname (which is great) and for being the alma mater of Jake Delhomme (not so great). SDSU's greatest football star was Marshall Faulk, so they win that battle handily. Sadly for each team and the few dozen people who will be watching this game, neither of those guys will be suiting up this week. Both teams look completely equal, but at least ULL has de facto home field advantage.
My pick: Louisiana-Lafayette
Mascot Advantage: Ragin' Cajuns in a landslide. People from Louisiana are terrifying. The Aztecs aren't with us anymore. It's no contest.
Beef O'Brady's Bowl St. Petersburg
Florida International Golden Panthers (8-4) vs. Marshall Thundering Herd (6-6)
Much like Louisiana-Lafayette and Louisiana-Monroe, I can never keep Florida International and Florida Atlantic separate. Most years, all four are terrible. This year ULL and FIU have separated themselves from the group, and good for them. They're all making the Sun Belt proud. They also both get to stay in their home states for their bowl games, which I suppose is better than getting shipped off to Detroit. Neither of these teams is in the top 65 of any major statistical category, with the lone exception of FIU's 16th ranked scoring defense. I think the takeaway point here is that Marshall, despite being very tastefully named, went 6-6 in the MAC, which is somewhat like going 2-10 in the SEC West. There's no way I'm putting my money on a team like that.
My pick: Florida International
Mascot Advantage: This is the only domain where Marshall elevates themselves above FIU. Although I think the Marshall Marshalls would be even more intimidating.
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
TCU Horned Frogs (10-2) vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-4)
Ah, my favorite bowl name of them all. Who wouldn't want to play in a bowl whose name rolls off the tongue like this one does? Mountain West champ TCU takes on WAC champ Louisiana Tech, who must both be thinking there should be a greater reward for being conference champs. TCU's biggest win this season was, of course, their comeback victory over then-undefeated Boise St., while LA Tech's big win was against, um, Ole Miss. TCU did lose two games, but both were close, a 50-48 barn burner against Baylor (little did we know what RGIII would become back then) and a surprising OT loss against SMU. LA Tech's losses came clustered at the beginning of the season, where they dropped three games by a combined nine points against Southern Miss, Mississippi State, and Houston, followed by a bad 18 point loss to Hawaii. Since then, they have reeled off seven straight wins coming into this game. Still, TCU has a clear statistical advantage, not to mention a strong reputation from recent years as a small conference powerhouse.
My pick: TCU
Mascot Advantage. TCU wins again. Horned frogs shoot blood from their eyes. Enough said.
MAACO Bowl Las Vegas
Boise State Broncos (11-1) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6)
On paper, this is a clear mismatch, which is why it frightens me the most. Boise State has a better record, better stats, and a better reputation. But how dejected are they to have to play in this rather than a BCS bowl? The exact same situation occurred last year, though. An 11-1 Boise St. team came into the game only having lost to Nevada, and they dispatched Utah 26-3 in the MAACO Bowl. Boise comes into this game in the top 10 in three of the four major statistical categories. Arizona St. is only in the top 20 in one, averaging over 310 passing yards per game. It just won't be enough, though. Boise State is too good, and they'll become defending MAACO Bowl champs. And how many different teams can lay claim to that?
My pick: Boise State
Mascot Advantage: Arizona State wins here. That Sun Devil is adorable.
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Nevada Wolfpack (7-5) vs. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (11-2)
I feel like Southern Miss doesn't get the respect they deserve, at least outside of the state. They've had 17 straight winning seasons, including bowl appearances 14 out of the past 15 years. They are, in short, the best football team in Mississippi, however little that actually says the past few years. They had some short lived media attention a couple of weeks ago when they knocked off previously undefeated Houston, but it didn't amount to much. At least they get to hang out in Hawaii for a little while. They're ranked 31st or higher in all the major statistical categories (granted, so is Nevada, except for being 58th in points allowed, which is itself skewed because of the 69 points they allowed to Oregon). They're both very solid teams. Southern Miss is coming into the game on a high, though, while Nevada has dropped two of the past three games. Nevada isn't hopeless, but I expect Southern Miss to put the finishing touches on their first ever 12-win season.
My pick: Southern Miss
Mascot Advantage: They're eagles made out of solid gold. USM wins by a mile.
And thus concludes part 1 of my bowl preview. The next part will be ready at some point in the future. I can't believe there are still 28 more of these to write about.
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