Monday, December 5, 2011

Department of Misleading Stats: Turner Edition

Just a quickie post here. I don't mean for this to turn into Hate On Norv Turner Night, but the MNF guys just ran a graphic showing that Norv Turner and Philip Rivers have the fifth most wins (45) of any coach/QB tandem in the NFL the past five years. Well, guys, who else is there?

Bill Belichick/Tom Brady: 50 wins
Mike Tomlin/Ben Roethlisberger: 49 wins
Sean Payton/Drew Brees: 48 wins
Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning: 46 wins
Norv Turner/Philip Rivers: 45 wins
Gary Kubiak/Matt Schaub: 40 32 wins

And that's it. There haven't been any other steady coach/QB combos in the NFL for the past five years. Here's another wrinkle. Over the last five years, Schaub has missed 10 games with injuries. His career record with the Texans is 32-32, so he could have been expected to win half of those games had he played, which would have put him at 45 wins, tied with Philip Rivers. So basically what that graphic really said is that Turner/Rivers is (best-case) the second-worst steady tandem over the last half-decade.

I think that Philip Rivers is a fairly decent quarterback, even though it looks like he's throwing a shot put when he passes. My whole point is that sometimes a little context is necessary when they show us statistics like that. There's often a lot more to the story than meets the eye.

[Major edit: I just realized that I had used the Texans' overall win total for the past five years, not just the games that Schaub had won. But my point still stands.]

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